Hear all the kids cast their votes

It's when I read things like this and watch or hear things like this that I get the election-flashing-before-my-eyes feeling that Barack Obama is going to win big in November. Not "well, duh" Reagan-over-Mondale big, but maybe "we should have seen this coming" Pistons-over-Lakers big.

And if Obama does win I think a prominent reason will be the continued rise of the oft-stereotyped "youth vote." And when I say "youth vote" I mean shorts-and-sandals-wearing, ultimate-frisbee-tossing, pamphlet-distributing next-gen hippies. You know who I'm talking about. College students.

Okay, not all college students. But here's my theory. The perception that the youth vote has increased in recent elections is actually due to an increase in the number of liberal arts college students who are gravitating to that most regrettable of extracurricular activities: activism. Hence, a noticeable change in news coverage but not in election results.

The difference this year will be an increase in all young voters, not just the protesters and pamphleteers. But it's not just because of the promise of change--every candidate makes this promise at every election, even incumbents. The difference in Obama is that without even opening his mouth he is change--real, tangible, visible change: his name, his background, his skin color, his age. When it comes to presidential candidates, Barack Obama is change itself, regardless of what his policies may or may not be.

The key to my theory is the casual voter. We know activists across all ages and political parties will show up to vote, and an increase in young activists will not make real waves. But there is a rift in turnout between age groups in the much larger casual voter bloc. The older casuals still go out and vote at most elections--a holdover sense of civic duty from a past generation, or maybe a better understanding of a vote's power. But the younger casuals typically don't bother; after all, the guys behind the podiums all look the same every four years anyway.

Until this year. There hasn't be a viable candidate as plainly different as Obama since... well, never, for today's youth vote. Since I was two years old these have been the choices presented to voters: Reagan, Mondale, Bush, Dukakis, Bush, Clinton, Dole, Clinton, Bush, Gore, Bush, Kerry, McCain... Obama. Obama is change, and the participation of the "youth vote" on November 4 will have a whole new meaning.